It's pretty clear at this point that The Dark Knight Rises is not going to equal the box office phenomenon of its predecessor. And yet, it's still managing to move a lot of tickets week over week ending up at the number one spot yet again with $36 million in ticket sales. At its current trajectory, it should end up somewhere between $400 - 450 million in the U.S. The expectations were set so high with The Dark Knight that it feels deflated. You could just as easily spin it in the other direction. The third film will make double the take of Batman Begins. Either way, it's money in the bank for Warner Bros., as the film has a shot at making a clean billion worldwide. On the other end of the money train is Total Recall, an absolutely ridiculous roll of the dice which came up with an underwhelming $26 million in its opening weekend. At a projected cost of $200 million, the movie is going to have to produce some major revenue overseas to not be another costly loss. I'm not one for playing armchair studio head, but the math on this one never seemed to make much sense to me.
You got Colin Farrell, a guy ten years past his prime whose only hit recently is a supporting role in Horrible Bosses. Jessica Biel, who is so many years past her expiration date that her inclusion in this movie is baffling. In fact, the entire cast is made up of people who are past the apex of their careers. Kate Beckinsale, a talented hot actress who has been in so much big budget garbage and never had an iconic role… maybe Underworld but those were never anything but high polish B movie trash. Look at the top five grossing films for Beckinsale:
1. Pearl Harbor - $277,819,300 ($198,542,554 opening)
2. Click - $166,085,000 ($137,355,633 opening)
3. Van Helsing - $153,269,300 ($120,177,084 opening)
4. The Aviator - $127,585,100 ($102,610,330 opening)
5. Underworld: Evolution - $75,353,500 ($62,318,875 opening)
Pearl Harbor? Click? Van Helsing? Kate Beckinsale might have one of the most painfully average filmography of any actress working today. Maybe Milla Jovovich could give her a run for her money.
Then you hand the movie to Len Wiseman who has never made a movie that made the kind of money Total Recall needs to make to break even. His biggest worldwide hit was Live Free or Die Hard which couldn't crack $400 million worldwide. Look at this equation on paper.
Colin Farrell +
Jessica Biel +
Kate Beckinsdale +
Len Wiseman +
200 million dollars
_______________________
= Battleship? John Carter? Maybe $200 – 300 million worldwide?
What did they think was going to end up as the total sum? This is one of those strange bets that seems to have put all the money on the long play, as in, not seeing a dime back until a few years out. I’m not sure why anyone would gamble $200 million on this equation. But hey, it's not my money.
On the other end of the budget train you have the third movie based on the Diary of a Wimpy Kid book series. This low cost production (around $20 million) managed almost $15 million in its first week. This one should be able to clear its production budget in a theatrical run, something that's becoming more and more rare.
Last week's leftovers didn't hold up well. The Watch could only manage $6 million dollars in its second week. Step Up: Revolution barely made $5 million.
Next week looks far more encouraging with a handful of films including the first Matt Damon-less Bourne film leaving Jeremy Renner to carry The Bourne Legacy. Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis star in the comedy The Campaign, and the makers of Jackass are hoping to to recreate some 3D magic with the extreme motor sports film Nitro Circus. Look for a soft but respectable opening on Bourne and a strong opening for The Campaign. If I were a gambling man, I might take the over/under on The Campaign opening higher than The Bourne Legacy. Renner has a lot of goodwill after The Avengers, and the Bourne films do well in August. But I keep thinking a Bourne film without Damon might not have a lot in the tank. See you next week.
Here's your top films for North America...
1. The Dark Knight Rises
Weekend Estimate: $36 million; $352 million total
2. Total Recall
Weekend Estimate: $26 million
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days
Weekend Estimate: $15 million
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift
Weekend Estimate: $8 million; $132 million total
5. The Watch
Weekend Estimate: $6 million; $25 million total
Anghus Houvouras
